The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin

NJ Bridgewater
35 min readJan 6, 2021

NJ Bridgewater (@Nicholas19 on Twitter)

5 January 2021

“#Bitcoin is the first software network capable of storing all the monetary energy in the world with no loss of power over time and negligible transmission loss. Assuming broad adoption, that would make it the most valuable invention of the modern era. Few understand this.”[1]

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, October 16, 2020


I have seen several articles making the case for a $1,000,000 Bitcoin (such as this one).[3] I thought it appropriate, therefore, to look even further into the future and thus decided to write about the case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin, or, what is more, a $15,000,000 Bitcoin and a $100,000,000 Bitcoin, i.e. dollar-satoshi (‘dollar-sat’) parity. We are living in unusual times, but the reason for such times should not be mysterious. Let there be no mistake, the current economic troubles the world is going through are not caused by COVID-19 or any other particular Black Swan event. They are caused by an imbalance in the economic system that is largely due to central bank money printing and manipulation of the economy. As Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises stated in Human Action: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of the voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”[4] Whatever the traditional Keynesian economists and central bankers may believe, it is largely their policies and ideas which have got us into the mess that we are in right now. I have elsewhere looked at “The Origins of Money”[5] and “The Origins of Wealth”,[6] as well as “The Origins of Bitcoin”,[7] so I would refer you to those articles if you want to gain a fuller picture of how money originated, how it has developed, and what has led to where we are right now. I would also recommend that you thoroughly read Nick Szabo’s masterful article, “Shelling Out: The Origins of Money”,[8] “The many traditions of non-governmental money”,[9] and “Money, blockchains, and social scalability”.[10]

Money should be created by the free market

To be brief, however, a few points need to be brought up. Money is, first and foremost, a vehicle created by the free market in order to store value, transporting it into the future. That value can then be exchanged for goods and services. This is a much more efficient system than barter, which involves difficulties in balancing the relevant values of the items being traded. Money serves as a medium, and “the vehicle of economic calculation.”[12] It is not an arbitrary medium, however. It cannot simply be created out of nothing. It has to emerge naturally within the free market. In the past, this was always the most saleable commodity, e.g. shells, beads, silver, gold etc. To be sound money, it must also be limited in supply. The supply doesn’t matter — only that it is limited or fixed. This is to ensure that it represents scarcity. Any quantity of money can absorb all the value in the economy. The exact supply doesn’t matter, as long as it is limited. This is essential, because, Mises informs us, “the purchasing power of money is determined by demand and supply, as is the case with the prices of all vendible goods and services” and “he who considers acquiring or giving away money is, of course, first of all interested in its future purchasing power.”[13] Bitcoin is the latest evolution of money. It had a creator, and various collaborators who worked on it, but it very much emerged as a free market solution to a problem.

The problem — fiat currency and ‘easy money’

Since 1971, the US and the rest of the world has not been using a gold standard. Instead, countries use fiat currencies, which are created by governments to serve as money. The total supply of these currencies, however, are constantly being inflated — now on a massive scale. The 2008 financial crisis, which was a result of too much easy money being created by the Federal Reserve, as well as other big government policies, was the signal for Bitcoin to come into existence, and its subsequent value is a sign that the free market has fully accepted it as a store of value which serves many of the functions that gold and previous free market monies served. Bitcoin is absolutely scarce, having a total maximum supply of 21 million BTC, with each Bitcoin consisting of 100,000,000 satoshis. Since Bitcoin is “unforgeably costly”,[14] to use the phrase of Nick Szabo, it cannot be created at whim. It cannot be inflated and, due it is distributed and decentralized nature, its scarcity is immutable. It is thus superior to gold in the fixity of its supply, its portability (being digital), its security (being easily stored) and its liquidity. Bitcoin is also easier to verify, less confiscatable, censorship-resistant and anti-fragile.[15]

The current crisis

The current 2019–2020 COVID-19 pandemic has led to government shutdowns of the economy on a massive scale, destroying small businesses, jobs and disrupting the economy. Whatever the relative dangers of the virus, this represents massive government interference in the economy which can only have a negative economic impact. Central banks have responded by yet more money printing, which is already leading to massive inflation. The CPI (consumer price index), which measures inflation, bases its measurement on an irrelevant basket of goods. It fails to account for real estate, asset inflation, education costs, and basically everything else that actually matters. Real inflation is much higher than that which is being reported. This is an inevitable result of a massive increase in the money supply, i.e. the fiat money supply. As Richard Cantillon (1755) stated in his essay Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en Général, “Everybody agrees that the abundance of money or its increase in exchange, raises the price of everything. The quantity of money brought from America to Europe for the last two centuries justifies this truth by experience.”[17] As a result, we have seen the stock market continue to rise in value, despite no actual increase in the value of the companies represented by shares. Those who are closest to the new money supply benefit the most (e.g. banks, financiers and massive corporations). This is known as the Cantillon effect (named after Richard Cantillon). People are fleeing fiat currencies for stocks, real estate and other assets. Now, both individuals and institutions are also piling into Bitcoin on a massive scale. The price of Bitcoin has risen to a high of above $34,000 per BTC as we speak. This is a massive increase from its March 2019 low of about $4,000 per BTC.

Money printer go brrrrrr….

We are living in a situation now which is analogous previous monetary and economic crises of the past. We are dangerously close to a Weimar Republic-style hyperinflation scenario which could result in the end of fiat currencies as we know them. We can find examples, however, of currency debasement going back thousands of years. As I related in “The Origins of Money”: “Eventually, even the Athenians resorted to bronze coinage during times of war, issuing token bronze coins in 406 BCE to help defray the costs of the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE).[19] Athens lost that war, by the way, so currency debasement did them no good. Debasement was also carried out by Dionysius of Syracuse, who called in all coins for counter-stamping, reducing the standard by half while doubling their nominal value and keeping half the coins to pay off his outstanding debts, thus debasing the currency by 50%.[20] Rome, the great empire of Europe, originally had a stable currency based on gold and silver.”[21] In the case of Athens, after they were defeated by the Spartan admiral Lysander in 405 BC, they were forced to demolish the long walls and fortifications of Piraeus, surrender all but twelve ships, and accept Spartan leadership in any expedition that Sparta might make.[22] They thus lost their empire and their supremacy in the region. The Peloponnesian War of our times is COVID-19. Instead of bronze coinage, the US Government, and many other governments, are trying vainly to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 and economic ruination by giving out stimulus cheques, paying welfare benefits, and other massive spending. Far from fixing the problem, however, such spending is merely exacerbating the ultimate problem — debasement of the currency. We now seem to be locked in an age of permanent stimulus and permanent currency debasement. The only logical result of this will be inflation. As President-elect Joe Biden recently stated, the $900 billion stimulus is, “at best only be a down payment” and the $3.3 trillion current total “is just the beginning.”[23] It seems likely that the $900 — $2000 individual payments to Americans are a foreshadowing of permanent UBI (universal basic income) to come.

“Destruction” — painting by Thomas Cole (1833)

The value of absolute scarcity

Bitcoin is, without a doubt, the most absolutely scarce asset on the planet. Why is that? Because it is immutable and verifiably scarce. While the total supply of gold can be estimated, it cannot every be verifiably known. The supply of Picasso paintings, referenced as being scarcer than Bitcoin in a failed argument by Keynesian economist Frances Coppola, is also not 100% verifiable, not to mention that Picasso paintings are not liquid or fungible and require incredible security to keep them from theft or damage. Bitcoin, in contrast, is anti-fragile, to use Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s phrase.[25] This means that the Bitcoin network is robust, indestructible and can survive any and all eventualities, even nuclear war or economic collapse. They are also unforgeably costly, to use Nick Szabo’s expression, meaning that they cannot easily be created, forged or copied.

One of Satoshi’s greatest inventions was the halving schedule. By ensuring that Bitcoin’s new supply ‘halved’ roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, means that the inflation rate of Bitcoin goes down massively over time. Thus, while inflation was high in the first years, it is now incredibly low, and will soon be lower than gold itself. In 2024, Bitcoin’s growth rate will drop to 1.26%, which is well below that of gold. The last full Bitcoin will be mined sometime around 2033, and the last Bitcoin will be mined sometime around 2140.[27] This means that Bitcoin has a high stock to flow ratio. New Bitcoin will never overtake existing supply. The same cannot be said of gold, which also has a high stock to flow ratio, but which has no upper limit on the amount that can be mined. In contrast, there will only ever be 21 million BTC, with several million already having been lost. There are over 18 million BTC currently in existence.

Projected Halving Events & The Total Bitcoin Supply — 2024–2090 CE

Bitcoin is the financial singularity

Despite its scarcity, there is more than enough Bitcoin for the entire planet to use it — not on the base layer, i.e. the blockchain — but in secondary layers and payment systems. The total supply of a currency is always enough for it absorb all the value in the economy. The notable economist Rothbard wrote that “once there is enough of a supply of a commodity to be established on the market as money, there is no need ever to increase the supply of money. This means that any supply of money whatever is ‘optimal’; and every change in the supply of money stimulated by government can only be pernicious.”[28] As we can see from the chart above, [29] Bitcoin will reach a supply of almost 21 million BTC by about 2056 AD, with the last Bitcoin being mined by 2140 AD. Every four years, there is a massive supply shock. As Bitcoin miners are only able to produce half of the supply they were previously producing, and demand continues to rise as individuals, funds and institutions seek a store of value which impervious to inflation and money printing, there is a severe supply shock. This has occurred with every previous Bitcoin halving, and has recently been witnessed following the May 2020 halving, with the price of Bitcoin jumping rapidly as a result.

The idea of a singularity is not new. Robert Hanson wrote in 1998: “Thus it is possible, though not obvious, that a continuation of historical trends will result in an economic singularity…”[31] By the 19th century, virtually the whole planet had reached a single monetary standard: gold. However, since 1971,[32] the world has based its economic calculations on a variety of fiat currencies, which are not pegged to any real-world assets. As the world economy continued to grow from 1971 to present, the value of all the goods and services of the world were calculated in dollars, but dollars did not serve very well as a store of value. Thus, retirees had to put a lot of their wealth into real estate, the stock market and other assets rather than saving depreciating dollars in a bank account. Likewise, wealthy individuals in foreign countries with high rates of inflation and limited property rights began buying up real estate in Britain, the US and Canada, using property as a store of value. All of these assets have served as a means to escape the rising tide of inflation, like lifeboats in a flood of central-bank currency. That tide, however, has now become a deluge, and there is only one ark of salvation that can protect people’s wealth and assets from annihilation: Bitcoin.

What does it mean for Bitcoin to be the financial singularity? Basically, it means that Bitcoin is currently undergoing a process of monetization, and this involves the absorption of the value stored in current asset classes. As people begin to realise that gold is no longer the best long-term store of value, Bitcoin begins to absorb the total market-cap of gold. As popular Bitcoin quant analyst Plan B tweeted in December 2020: “If BTC does follow its historical path, we will take out gold in 2021–2024, and real estate 2024–2028. After real estate we cannot interpolate anymore and have to extrapolate, uncharted waters, hyperbitcoinization?”[34] The current value of gold (in 2020) is roughly $10.891 trillion USD.[35] That gives a potential Bitcoin price of between $238,095 — $476,190 USD per BTC sometime between 2021 and 2024. In 2019, he had predicted a Bitcoin price of “$100K (2020+), $1M (2024+), $10M (2028+)…”[36] However, in an article published in April 2020, Plan B updated his model, giving a prediction of $288,000 sometime between 2020–2024.[37] $288,000, however, is not the absolute high that he predicts in that time period. It could, he says, overshoot this target by 2–3x, followed by a potential 80% crash.[38] He also cautions that “model is perfectly on track now. we have a long way to go until $288K and model allows for 2–3x overshooting. So, I don’t think we will break to the upside this cycle.”[39] Nevertheless, he predicts that “we could break to the upside / start hyperbitcoinzation after next cycle (S2F100 / $100T, ~2028).”[40] Hyperbitcoinization is a term first coined by by Daniel Krawisz back in 2014 in his article entitled “Hyperbitcoinization”.[41] ObiWan Kenobit (2018) defines it as “a theoretical state wherein Bitcoin displaces legacy currencies and becomes the dominant if not only method to exchange value.”[42]

The Path to a $10,000,000 Bitcoin

As noted above, Plan B’s model predicts that the “BTC market cap will approach gold market value $5–10T in 2021–2024 and approach real estate market value $10–100T in 2024–2028.”[44] The next Bitcoin halving is in 2024 (when the block reward drops to 3.125 BTC), followed by the following halving in 2028 (when the block reward drops to 1.5626 BTC), and the halving in 2032 (when the block reward drops to 0.78125 BTC and the total mined supply will have reached 20,671,875 BTC). Thus, by 2028, the block reward will drop to less than 2 BTC and, by 2032, less than 1 BTC per block. Each halving is followed by a ‘supply shock’ as the supply fails to meet demand and buyers bid up the price of each Bitcoin until it reaches multiples of its pre-halving price. What follows is a bull run that lasts for about a year or so, followed by a bear market. These four-year-cycles draw in more Bitcoin users and holders with each iteration. As Brandon Quittem explains:

“To the casual observer, most of bitcoin’s life is boring — months go by with relatively little action. Then when conditions are just right, bitcoin explodes into life, growing massively in size, and hijacking the consciousness of observers. Price goes to the “moon,” media is flooded with hyperbole, and “DMs from normies” flood in… Eventually the market bottoms. Hodlers cling together like a Band of Brothers creating a strong foundation capable of sustaining future growth… As hodlers hoard more bitcoin, the “float” (supply actively being traded) is increasingly constrained. With a decreasing available supply, each new user puts more upward pressure on the price. As price rises, media shines a spotlight, new users are pulled in, and before long we’re back in another hype cycle.”[45]

We can be fairly certain, based on the current and past market cycles, that there will be a bull market in 2024–2025, followed by a bull market in 2028–2029, and a bull market in 2032- 2033. At the peak of the 2016–2017 bull market, the Bitcoin price reached a peak of $20,000. This was followed by a price crash and a bear market which lasted until 2020. Following the halving in May 2020, the price climbed up and eventually reached $20,000 yet again, followed by a new all time high of $34,000. We have yet to reach the end of the current bull market. The previous bull market coincided with massive uncertainty about the election of Donald Trump in 2016. And the current bull market has occurred at the end of that presidency, with massive uncertainty about the economic impact of the new administration, the ongoing 2019–2020 COVID-19 crisis, massive government stimulus spending, and widespread lockdowns, including a new lockdown throughout England, Scotland and Wales, set to continue until February 2021 (with no fixed end date).

Government lockdowns are destroying small business, increasing unemployment and driving increasing social unrest and societal disruption. This is set within a backdrop of the rise of far-left extremists, e.g. ANTIFA, increased racial animosity spurred on by Marxist activists, culture wars over values and identity, and a massive increase in populism, government encroachment on freedom, social media interference in elections, and clampdowns on free speech (especially against conservative ‘wrong-think’) and other goose-steps towards Orwellian tyranny. With the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank and other central banks printing fiat currency like there is there no tomorrow, we are also now on the path to massive inflation and erosion of trust in the monetary system. This is the perfect storm for Bitcoin. Amidst a deluge of epic proportions, there is no escape from drowning in the sea of hyperinflation other than within the ark of Bitcoin.

We are unlikely to reach a $1,000,000 Bitcoin within the bull market current cycle (2020–2021); however, we are likely to reach a high of somewhere between $100,000 — $288,000, if not 2x — 3x this (i.e. $576,000 — $864,000). I wouldn’t be surprised by anything within this range. Suffice it to say that $34,000 will not be the height of the current cycle. What about the next cycle? As noted above, Plan B predicted “$1M (2024+), $10M (2028+)…”[48] This coincides with his prediction that Bitcoin “will take out gold in 2021–2024, and real estate 2024–2028” after which “we can not interpolate anymore and have to extrapolate, uncharted waters” and possibly “hyperbitcoinization.”[49] Hal Finney, one of the earliest contributors to Bitcoin, wrote in 2009 that “current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.”[50] According to Plan B’s S2F model, that would be reached by the fifth Bitcoin halving (2028) and the bull market of 2028–2029. After that point, Plan B’s model breaks down, and he predicts that hyperbitcoinization may follow, which will involve a complete breakdown of the current financial and monetary system. It’s the establishment of a worldwide Bitcoin standard.

The Path to a $15,000,000 Bitcoin

Whether or not the S2F model breaks down and we reach $10,000,000 by 2028, followed by hyperbitcoinization, it seems increasingly likely that that price will inevitably be reached. In the 2018–2020 bear market, people scoffed at the idea of a $100,000 Bitcoin. Perma-bear anti-Bitcoin gold-bug Peter Schiff went so far as to say that Bitcoin will not reach its previous all-time high of $20,000 again.[52] He constantly calls on Bitcoin holders to sell and predicts that Bitcoin will go to zero. Nouriel Roubini makes similar predictions, saying that Bitcoin is a pump-and-dump Ponzi scheme. As we have increasingly learned following Brexit, the COVID-19 crisis, and the failed predictions of climate change alarmists, the “experts” are, quite often, very wrong — even spectacularly wrong.

Somehow, economists seem to be most wrong when it comes to Bitcoin, lending credence to the view that Keynesian economics is a pseudo-science, rather than an actual science, and vindicating Austrian economics as a more accurate school. Regardless of all these negative predictions, the economists, goldbugs and perma-bears have been proved wrong and Bitcoin is now only a 3x away from $100,000. The same thing will inevitably happen following the 2024 halving. We may reach $1,000,000 or more at the height of the 2024–2025 bull market. That is by no means a guarantee. Perhaps we will reach $500,000 in 2025 and $1,000,000 in 2028–2029. Or perhaps we will reach $10,000,000 in 2029. There are many variables which means that we cannot predict any of this with accuracy. I would be very surprised, however, if we did not reach $10,000,000 or above by the halving of 2032 and the subsequent bull market of 2032–2033. At that point, perhaps we will reach multiples of this — maybe even $15,000,000 — $20,000,000 per BTC. If not, then after the following halving in 2036.

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model Chart (Plan B)

If Bitcoin absorbs the total value of global debt ($252.6 trillion) or the total value of global real estate ($280.6 trillion), then 1 BTC could be worth roughly $12 million — $13.361 million USD (not taking into account lost coins). If we assume that there are roughly 4 million lost BTC,[55] thus about 16,671,000 BTC available, then we get a valuation of about $15,152,060 — $16,831,623 per BTC. There is thus, I believe, quite a strong case for Bitcoin to reach $15,000,000 by 2033 at the end of the 2032–2033 and following the sixth Bitcoin halving (in 2032). This makes sense as the block reward will be 0.78125 BTC, meaning that the cost of mining 1 BTC (and even 0.78125 BTC) will be enormous. The value per BTC must always be high enough to take into account the energy and computational costs involved in mining a single Bitcoin block. Fees will also need to be high enough to meet the cost of transferring Bitcoin. At that point, Bitcoin will serve mainly as a settlement layer. It won’t be for buying coffee on the blockchain. Rather, it will be a way of transferring large quantities of value over a permanent, immutable, censorship-resistant and anti-fragile network. Layer-2 solutions will be created which will allow for fast or instantaneous payments to be made (including micro-payments), which will later be settled on the blockchain. For more on this, and the social scaleability of Bitcoin, see my article entitled “Ten Reasons to Buy Bitcoin”[56] and Nick Szabo’s article on social scalability.[57]

The Bitcoin Super-cycle and Hyperbitcoinization

There is an alternative to the above, however. What if Bitcoin enters a massive super-cycle? What if the existing models break down? Currently, there are 4-year Bitcoin cycles. These form a series of Gartner hype cycles on Bitcoin’s path to monetization. Each halving is followed by a bull market, which is followed by a price crash and a bear market, much to the amusement of Peter Schiff, Roubini, Krugman and other Bitcoin critics, who are then astounded (and annoyed) when Bitcoin eventually reaches its previous all-time-high and begins a new bull market. What if this all breaks down and there is, instead, one great Bitcoin super-cycle which breaks the entire financial system and leads to hyperbitcoinization? At that point, Plan B’s S2F model no longer applies and we will be in truly uncharted waters. Dan Held made this suggestion recently on Twitter (on December 26, 2020):

“Why Bitcoin may be going through a “Supercycle”: This time is different: COVID, Gold 2.0 narrative, institutional herd, and ease of use have set a new stage. Instead of a normal bull/bear cycle, Bitcoin would break convention and enter a “Supercycle”. You probably first heard of Bitcoin in 2013 or 2017 when friends and family were talking about the wild swings in price. Bitcoin’s market cycle is typically around 4 years and some hypothesize the cycle is induced by halvings (a reduction in new supply). The idea being a reduction in supply + increase in demand = number go up. We can call this Bitcoin’s viral marketing loop… However, this cycle is different. Never before has Bitcoin had such strong fundamentals against a macro backdrop that highlights exactly why Bitcoin is needed, the narrative is singular, and the ability for global value to flow into Bitcoin has never been easier.

“While Bitcoin was planted during the 2008 financial crisis, it has blossomed largely during a macro bull run. From 2008–2020, the traditional financial markets had a few minor corrections but no recession. Until COVID came. When COVID came, the markets plunged. This was Bitcoin’s first real test. Will HODLers be the buyer of last resort? Will Bitcoin go to $0 when the world is on fire? While Bitcoin suffered a nail bitting plunge during the March 12th liquidity crisis (which affected all assets), Bitcoin survived and surged out of the gates in late 2020 to reach all time highs of $24k. While Bitcoin recovered, governments across the world engaged in unprecedented money printing. And when I say unprecedented, I mean never before in all recorded financial history. $10T+ was printed across the world to bolster the traditional finance system. This meant that governments were actively devaluing their currency, which is exactly what Bitcoin was built to protect against.

“Most people don’t think about getting earthquake insurance until an earthquake hits. Then the insurance companies are flooded with requests. Bitcoin was special purpose built to be a store of value in a world where you can’t trust your government or bank. Those moments don’t come around often though, like the 2008 financial crisis… Bitcoin was made for this moment. It is easier to understand and purchase from a wide variety of places. What happens when ownership of Bitcoin moves from 0.01% of the world to 1%? What happens when part of the $100T managed by institutions flows into Bitcoin to preserve wealth? It certainly won’t be going from $20k to $100k. It could move from $20k to $1M and then only have smaller cycles after. This may be one of the final big cycles.” [58]

While I agree that a Bitcoin super-cycle is possible, I think that $1 million per BTC is a rather low estimate for its end result. Rather, I would agree with Hal Finney that $10,000,000 is a reasonable target, and with Plan B that it could be achieved sometime between 2028–2033. However, the idea that a super-cycle could come is very reasonable, as Bitcoin may, in one great leap, break the existing system and become the ark of financial salvation — the financial singularity — which will suck up much of the value on the planet. As people shovel their worthless fiat savings and income into BTC, Bitcoin will begin to suck up much of the value currently saved in gold, the stock market, real estate, bonds and sovereign debt. At that point, even $15,000,000 per BTC begins to look like an underestimation of its eventual potential.

As Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, a company which now holds over 70,000 BTC, explains: “#Bitcoin isn’t a train leaving the station, it’s an ark to avoid drowning in the currency flood. Missing the train means an opportunity lost. Missing the ark means everything lost.”[60] Bitcoin author Knut Svanholm tweeted: “Imagine, everything there is and everything that will ever be, divided by 21 million. No one understands. #Bitcoin.”[61] In an article entitled “You are Not Prepared”, Knut furthermore writes: “Imagine the price of a bitcoin doubling every week. 10k USD, 20k, 40k, 80k, 160k, 320k, 640k, 1 mil, 2 mils, 4, 8, 16 mils and so on. At first, you’ll be very happy that your bitcoins now equal a sum of money large enough to pay off your entire mortgage. But what happens when they’re able to buy you a small city? When they can buy you not only friends but armies? When you realize that you’re richer than, say, Tibet?”[62]

Divide everything by 21 million

What does it mean for ‘everything there is’ to be ‘divided by 21 million’? What is the end result of hyperbitcoinization? In another Twitter thread, Svanholm elaborates: “There’s no end point to hyperbitcoinization. It simply continues… It’s not just the value of all the money in the world that can be absorbed by #Bitcoin, and not even just the value of everything else. Once the whole world is on a sound money standard, the world economy will become more efficient and less wasteful at an ever increasing rate… Theoretically, the purchasing power of #Bitcoin can only go up, indefinitely, at an ever increasing rate. It is beyond mind blowing. It has been said that humanity’s inability to understand exponentials is our biggest flaw. #Bitcoin will prove this in an unprecedented way. You won’t believe your eyes. It is already weird, but we haven’t seen anything even remotely close to what’s about to happen. Fasten your seat belts. The engines are lit.”[63]

If we do divide everything by 21 million, what do we get? If we take the broad money supply of $80.9 trillion USD,[65] combined with the total value of global real estate ($280.6 trillion), the global equities market ($70.75 trillion),[66] the global bonds market (at $128.3 trillion),[67] and the derivatives market ($640 trillion),[68] we get a total value of $1.11965 quadrillion USD. A narrower estimate of the world’s wealth would be $399.2, according to Credit Suisse, who estimate that there are 52 million millionaires worldwide (at the end of 2019).[69] Even if we use the Credit Suisse estimate, and divide $399.2 by 21 million, we get $19,009,523.81 per BTC. With the estimate of $1.11965 quadrillion, we get roughly $53.316 million per BTC. Since Bitcoin will be used to value everything, and massive inflation is on its way, a future valuation of $100 million per BTC is not unreasonable.

At that point, Bitcoin is a true singularity. It has absorbed all the available value in the world because every economic calculation is made with reference to Bitcoin. All prices are expressed in Bitcoin, and Bitcoin becomes the main or sole medium of exchange, as well as the store of value. Bitcoin’s perpetual increase in value, as the population of the world increases and the world economy grows, will lead to lower prices as time goes on. Instead of price inflation, we will get price deflation, as the price of all goods and services go down over time, instead of up. This will lead to an incentive to save money rather than spend it, leading to lower time preference, better incentives, and longer-term thinking, resulting in better politics, better culture and a richer civilization. The current hard times will lead to strong men and strong men will lead to better times. As post-apocalyptic author G. Michael Hopf writes (quoting a meme that he found online years ago): “In my latter years, I’ve become somewhat of a philosopher and this is one truth that is indisputable. Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men and weak men crate hard times.”[71] (See also: Giacomo Zucco’s article on “Bitcoin & the HOPF Cycle of the Internet”).[72]

The Consummation

As Neil Howe and William Strauss, authors of The Fourth Turning, explain: “We like to label these four major kinds of generations with the shorthand of archetypes: prophet, nomad, hero, and artist.”[74] The hero generations “are born after a spiritual awakening, during a time of individual pragmatism, self-reliance, laissez-faire, and national (or sectional or ethnic) chauvinism. Heroes grow up as increasingly protected children, come of age as the valiant young team workers of a crisis, demonstrate hubris. as energetic mid-lifers, and emerge as powerful elders beset by another spiritual awakening. Because of their location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their collective coming-of-age triumphs and for their hubristic elder achievements. Their primary endowments relate to community, affluence, and technology.”[75] This includes the current millennial ‘hero’ generation. These are followed by the artist generation which is “born during a great war or other crisis, a time when worldly perils boil off the complexity of life, and public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice prevail.”[76] We are currently in the middle of that ‘great war or other crisis.’ The result will be a new era of prosperity and success. This will be “a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order.”[77] As Melik Manukyan puts it (describing the picture below, i.e. “The Consummation” by Thomas Cole’s (1833)):

“The Consummation” — painting by Thomas Cole (1833)

“You think this was lost forever? You have no heart!

12 years ago, #Bitcoin set in motion, the great revival.”[79]

If we divide everything by 21 million, as Knut Svanholm tweeted above, we will reach a value per BTC that far exceeds any current measure. Whether it is $10,000,000 or whether we reach dollar-sat parity at $100,000,000 per BTC, the measurement ultimately becomes meaningless. As Bitcoin reaches an infinite stock-to-flow ratio, and as the value of the US dollar and other fiat currencies trends towards zero, we are left with a valuation of 1 BTC = infinite dollars. 21 million is an absolute limit in the supply of Bitcoin, meaning that absolute monetary scarcity will exist and, as a financial singularity, it will absorb all the value that exists on the planet. As we move past our current stage of civilization, i.e. Type 0, to a Type 1 civilization on the Kardashev scale, we can expect Bitcoin’s value to rise accordingly. The age we are approaching therefore, might well be called a new Belle Époque, a new Gilded Age of sound money and civilization.

In The Bitcoin Standard, Saifedean Ammous describes this as “a society in which individuals bequeath their children more than what they received from their parents,” which is the hallmark of a civilized society.[81] He furthermore remarks that such a society “is a place where life is improving, and people live with a purpose of making the next generation’s lives better. As society’s capital levels continue to increase, productivity increases and, along with it, quality of life. The security of their basic needs assured, and the dangers of the environment averted, people turn their attention toward more profound aspects of life than material well-being and the drudgery of work. They cultivate families and social ties; undertake cultural, artistic, and literary projects; and seek to offer lasting contributions to their community and the world.”[82]

This reminds one of the Golden Age of Athenian culture (449–431 BC), and the even earlier golden age of the Minoan civilization in the Aegean Islands (from c. 3000–1450 BC), the Pax Romana (27 BC — 180 AD) started by Caesar Augustus (63 BC — 14 AD) and continued until the reign of the Stoic philosopher-emperor Marcus Aurelius (121–180 AD),[84] the last of the ‘Five Good Emperors’, the Islamic Golden Age (786–1258 AD), and even the more recent ‘Golden Age of Sound Money’ (as I describe it) (1418–1914 AD), which coincided with the Renaissance (14th — 17th centuries), Enlightenment (17th — 18th centuries), Industrial Revolution (1760–1840 AD) and the rise and height of the British Empire (1584–1926 AD). Is it possible that a new Age of Sound of Money is on the horizon? Will Bitcoin bring about a new Bitcoin Era of prosperity and economic growth? I believe that that will come to pass within our lifetimes, as crisis is followed by victory, and as the current economic and political turmoil of today are replaced by a new order of peace, prosperity and social consensus which will follow. As the old central banking system breaks down, a new Bitcoin standard is emerging. Only time will tell what the ultimate result of that system will bring. We may reflect on the words of Pericles (495–429 BC), who glorified ancient Athens in its golden age, as quoted by Thucydides (c. 460 — c. 400 BC) in his masterpiece, History of the Peloponnesian War:

“It is true that we are called a democracy, for the administration is in the hands of the many and not of the few. But while there exists equal justice to all and alike in their private disputes, the claim of excellence is also recognized; and when a citizen is in any way distinguished, he is preferred to the public service, not as a matter of privilege, but as the reward of merit. Neither is poverty an obstacle, but a man may benefit his country whatever the obscurity of his condition. There is no exclusiveness in our public life, and in our private business we are not suspicious of one another, nor angry with our neighbor if he does what he likes; we do not put on sour looks at him which, though harmless, are not pleasant. While we are thus unconstrained in our private business, a spirit of reverence pervades our public acts; we are prevented from doing wrong by respect for the authorities and for the laws, having a particular regard to those which are ordained for the protection of the injured as well as those unwritten laws which bring upon the transgressor of them the reprobation of the general sentiment. And we have not forgotten to provide for our weary spirits many relaxations from toil; we have regular games and sacrifices throughout the year; our homes are beautiful and elegant; and the delight which we daily feel in all these things helps to banish sorrow. Because of the greatness of our city the fruits of the whole earth flow in upon us; so that we enjoy the goods of other countries as freely as our own. Then, again, our military training is in many respects superior to that of our adversaries. Our city is thrown open to the world, though and we never expel a foreigner and prevent him from seeing or learning anything of which the secret if revealed to an enemy might profit him. We rely not upon management or trickery, but upon our own hearts and hands. And in the matter of education, whereas they from early youth are always undergoing laborious exercises which are to make them brave, we live at ease, and yet are equally ready to face the perils which they face…

“If then we prefer to meet danger with a light heart but without laborious training, and with a courage which is gained by habit and not enforced by law, are we not greatly the better for it? Since we do not anticipate the pain, although, when the hour comes, we can be as brave as those who never allow themselves to rest; thus our city is equally admirable in peace and in war. For we are lovers of the beautiful in our tastes and our strength lies, in our opinion, not in deliberation and discussion, but that knowledge which is gained by discussion preparatory to action. For we have a peculiar power of thinking before we act, and of acting, too, whereas other men are courageous from ignorance but hesitate upon reflection. And they are surely to be esteemed the bravest spirits who, having the clearest sense both of the pains and pleasures of life, do not on that account shrink from danger. In doing good, again, we are unlike others; we make our friends by conferring, not by receiving favors. Now he who confers a favor is the firmer friend, because he would rather by kindness keep alive the memory of an obligation; but the recipient is colder in his feelings, because he knows that in requiting another’s generosity he will not be winning gratitude but only paying a debt. We alone do good to our neighbors not upon a calculation of interest, but in the confidence of freedom and in a frank and fearless spirit. To sum up: I say that Athens is the school of Hellas, and that the individual Athenian in his own person seems to have the power of adapting himself to the most varied forms of action with the utmost versatility and grace.”[85]

NJ Bridgewater (@Nicholas19 on Twitter)

[1] See: Michael Saylor, tweet, October 16, 2020. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[2] See: “Now they want some BTC” by Mari0805. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[3] See: Clem Chambers (2020) Bitcoin To $1,000,000 Might Sound Crazy, But Is It? Forbes, Jun 16, 2020,11:26am EDT. URL: (accessed 05/01/2020).

[4] See: Ludwig von Mises (1998 edition) Human Action: A Treatise on Economics (Auburn, Alabama: The Ludwig von Mises Institute), p. 570. Available online at: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[5] See: NJ Bridgewater (2018) The Origins of Money (Part 1 of 2), Crossing the Bridge, 22 November 2018. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[6] See: NJ Bridgewater (2018) The Origins of Wealth (Part 1 of 4), Crossing the Bridge, 5 July 2018. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[7] See: NJ Bridgewater (2018) The Origins of Bitcoin, Crossing the Bridge, 5 December 2018. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[8] See: Nick Szabo (2002) Shelling Out: The Origins of Money, Satoshi Nakamoto Institute. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[9] See: Nick Szabo (2018) The many traditions of non-governmental money (part i), Unenumerated, March 23, 2018. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[10] See: Nick Szabo (2017) Money, blockchains, and social scalability, Unenumerated, February 09, 2017. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[11] Image source: The Moorish Bazaar by Edwin Lord Weeks, 1873. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[12] See: Mises, Human Action, p. 209.

[13] See: Mises, Human Action, p. 407.

[14] See: Nick Szabo (2017) Money, blockchains, and social scalability, Unenumerated, February 09, 2017. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[15] See: Adriana Hamacher (2020) How Bitcoin’s Antifragility Makes it Almost Unstoppable, Decrypt, Oct 30, 2020. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[16] Image source: Getty Images. From: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[17] Richard Cantillon, Henry Higgs (translator) (1755, 1959) Essay on the Nature of Trade in general (London: Frank Cass and Co. Ltd). URL: (accessed 04/01/2021).

[18] Image source: Image by @femalelandlords. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[19] See: Richard Henry Timberlake, Kevin Dowd (2017) Money and the Nation State: The Financial Revolution, Government and the World Monetary System (London: Taylor and Francis), p. 26.

[20] See: Timberlake, Dowd (2017), p. 26.

[21] See: NJ Bridgewater (2018) The Origins of Money (Part 1 of 2), Crossing the Bridge, 22 November 2018. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[22] (2006/2020) Xenophon on the surrender of Athens, URL: (accessed 04/01/2021).

[23] Phil Gramm, Mike Solon (2020) Welcome to the Era of Nonstop Stimulus, The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 3, 2021 1:18 pm ET. URL: (accessed 05/01/2020).

[24] “Destruction”, Painting by Thomas Cole (1833). URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[25] See: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2016) Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House).

[26] Image from Dr. Saifedean Ammous (2018) The Bitcoin Standard Research Bulletin, November 2018, Volume 1, Issue 3: Bitcoin Mining: Energy and Security, p. 3.

[27] See: Ammous (2018), p. 172.

[28] See: Murray Rothbard (1973) The Essential von Mises, Mises Institute — Online Texts, 06/15/1973. URL: (accessed 24/01/2019).

[29] Information gleaned from: Controlled supply (Bitcoin Wiki article).

[30] Image source: Black hole with corona, X-ray source (artist’s concept). URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[31] See: Robin Hanson (1998) Is a singularity just around the corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth, Journal of Transhumanism, 2, June 1998. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020).

[32] See: Nixon shock (Wikipedia article). URL: (accessed 05/01/2021 22:25 GMT).

[33] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[34] See: Plan B (2020), Twitter post, December 29, 2020. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020).

[35] See: Jeff Desjardins (2020) All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization, Visual Capitalist, May 27, 2020. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020). The whole precious metals market is worth $182.1 billion. See: Grand View Research (2020) Precious Metal Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Product (Gold, Silver, PGM), By Application (Jewelry, Industrial, Investment), By Region And Segment Forecasts, 2020–2027. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[36] See: Plan B (@100trillionUSD), tweet (Jul 14, 2019). URL: (accessed 29/12/2020).

[37] See: Plan B (@100trillionUSD) (2020) Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model, Medium, Apr 27, 2020. URL: (accessed 29/12/2020).

[38] He writes: “S2FX model predict 288k mean (cluster center) and allows for 2–3x overshoot (and 80% crash after that)”. See: Plan B (@100trillionUSD) (2021) Tweet, January 3, 2021. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[39] See: Plan B (@100trillionUSD) (2021) Tweet, January 3, 2021. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[40] Ibid.

[41] See: Daniel Krawisz (2014) Hyperbitcoinization, Satoshi Nakamoto Institute, March 29, 2014. URL: (accessed 19/02/2019).

[42] See: ObiWan Kenobit (2018) Hyperbitcoinization: Winner Takes All, Coinmonks, Medium, Jun 25, 2018. URL: (accessed 24/01/2019).

[43] Image source: IQ bell curve. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[44] See: Plan B (2020), Twitter post, December 4, 2020. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020).

[45] See: Brandon Quittem (2018) Bitcoin is a Social Creature (Mushroom) — Part 2/3, Medium, Dec 28, 2018. URL: (accessed 18/01/2019).

[46] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[47] Image source:

Piles of new Notgeld banknotes awaiting distribution at the Reichsbank during the hyperinflation. URL:,_Berlin,_Reichsbank,_Geldauflieferungsstelle.jpg (accessed 05/01/2021).

[48] See: Plan B (@100trillionUSD), tweet (Jul 14, 2019). URL: (accessed 29/12/2020).

[49] See: Plan B (2020), Twitter post, December 29, 2020. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020).

[50] See: Hal Finney (2009) Re: Bitcoin v0.1 released, Sun, 11 Jan 2009 10:22:14 -0800. URL: (accessed 22/01/2019).

[51] Image source: “Bitcoin please go to moon” by @1thousandx. Image URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[52] See: Peter Schiff (2020) tweet, Jun 28, 2020. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[53] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[54] Image source: (2020) Bitcoin stock to flow model live chart. This page is inspired by Medium article Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity written by Twitter user PlanB. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[55] See: Jeff John Roberts, Nicolas Rapp (2017) Exclusive: Nearly 4 Million Bitcoins Lost Forever, New Study Says, Fortune, November 25, 2017. URL: (accessed 23/09/2018).

[56] See: NJ Bridgewater (2018) Ten Reasons to Buy Bitcoin, Crossing the Bridge, September 24, 2018. URL: (accessed 05/01/2020).

[57] See: Nick Szabo (2017) Money, blockchains, and social scalability, Unenumerated, Thursday, February 09, 2017. URL: (accessed 23/09/2018).

[58] See: Dan Held (2020) Tweet. URL: (accessed 05/01/2020).

[59] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[60] See: Michael Saylor, tweet, November 17, 2020. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[61] See: Knut Svanholm (2020), Twitter post, October 16, 2020. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020).

[62] See: Knut Svanholm (2020) You are Not Prepared, Citadel 21, vol. 2, May 21, 2020. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020).

[63] See: Knut Svanholm, Twitter thread, December 19, 2020. URL: (accessed 30/12/2020).

[64] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[65] See: Jeff Desjardins (2015) This stunning visualization shows all of the world’s money, Business Insider, Dec 20, 2015, 5:53 PM. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[66] See: Stock market (Wikipedia article). URL: (accessed 05/01/2021 17:00 GMT).

[67] See: ICMA (International Capital Market Association) (2020) Bond Market Size (As of August 2020), ICMA. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[68] See: J.B. Maverick (2020) How Big Is the Derivatives Market? Investopedia, Updated Apr 28, 2020. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[69] See: Credit Suisse (2020) The Global wealth report 2020, Credit Suisse. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[70] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[71] See: G. Michael Hopf (2016) Those Who Remain: A Postapocalyptic Novel (CreateSpace Publishing Platform: North Charleston, South Carolina), Prologue. The novel takes place in the year 2066.

[72] See: Giacomo Zucco (2020) Bitcoin & the HOPF Cycle of the Internet, Bitcoin Times Edition 3. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[73] Image source: “Strong Men Create Good Times” (Western version) URL: (accessed 05/01/2020).

[74] See: Neil Howe and William Strauss (2007) The Next 20 Years: How Customer and Workforce Attitudes Will Evolve, Harvard Business Review, July-August 2007. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[75] See: Neil Howe and William Strauss (2007).

[76] See: Neil Howe and William Strauss (2007).

[77] See: Neil Howe and William Strauss (2007).

[78] Cole’s 1833 sketch for the arrangement of the paintings around Reed’s fireplace: the sketch also shows above the paintings three aspects of the Sun: left (rising); center (zenith); right (setting) The Savage State The Consummation Destruction The Arcadian or Pastoral State Desolation. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021). See also: “You think this was lost forever?” URL: (accessed 05/01/2020).

[79] Melik Manukyan (2020) tweet, January 2, 2021. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[80] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[81] See: Saifedean Ammous (2018) The Bitcoin Standard: A Decentralized Alternative to Central Banks (Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley), pp. 78–79.

[82] See: Ammous (2018), p. 79.

[83] Image source: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[84] “His meditations, composed in the tumult of the camp, are still extant; and he even condescended to give lessons of philosophy, in a more public manner than was perhaps consistent with the modesty of sage, or the dignity of an emperor. 47 But his life was the noblest commentary on the precepts of Zeno. He was severe to himself, indulgent to the imperfections of others, just and beneficent to all mankind.” — Edward Gibbon (1782, revised 1845) History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Vol. I (Philadelphia: Porter & Coates), Chapter III. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[85] Pericles, quoted in Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War. Translated by Benjamin Jowett. URL: (accessed 05/01/2021). Thucydides (author), Benjamin Jowett (translator) (1881) History of the Peloponnesian War (Oxford: The Clarendon Press), Book II, Chapter 37. Available online at: (accessed 05/01/2021).

[86] Image source: Pericles’ Funeral Oration (Perikles hält die Leichenrede) by Philipp Foltz (1852). URL: (accessed 05/01/2021).