The Path to a $1,000,000 Bitcoin
NJ Bridgewater
2 April 2024
As we approach the next Bitcoin halving, it is appropriate to once again look at where Bitcoin is going and its potential over the next few years. I first discovered Bitcoin in 2017 in the run-up to the 2017–2018 Bitcoin bull run. I first wrote a blog post on Bitcoin at the end of 2017,[1] and have written several posts since, including on Ten Reasons to Buy Bitcoin,[2] the Origins of Bitcoin and,[3] in 2021, on the Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin.[4] That latter article is now somewhat out-of-date, although its premise and arguments are still valid. Bitcoin has so far experienced three halvings: the first on 28 November 2012, the second on 9 July 2016, and the third on 11 May 2020. As I have previously explained, Bitcoin is the supreme monetary asset, and the one money which will bring about a new golden age of hard money. Its ultimate trajectory is infinite, as there is an infinite amount of fiat currency chasing a finite and absolutely scarce monetary good, so, ultimately, the price of Bitcoin will trend towards infinite dollars. The path to this will inevitably involve reaching a $1,000,000 Bitcoin, followed by a $10,000,000 Bitcoin (cent-sat parity), and $100,000,000 (dollar-sat parity), before the current dollar standard collapses and it is replaced by a global Bitcoin standard. The purpose of this article is to look at the near-term horizon — a $1,000,000 Bitcoin — which will likely come a lot sooner than most people expect. There are three main factors in the current ‘number go up’ (NGU) trajectory, which we will look at in turn:
1). The halving
2). The ETFs and institutional adoption; and
3). The infinite feedback loop and the financial singularity
1). The halving
The next halving is due to take place on or around 20 April 2024, which is in less than one month’s time. Each halving has reduced the new supply of Bitcoin via the block reward. When Bitcoin was first created, it had a block reward of 50 bitcoins per block, i.e. when each new block is mined, miners who successfully mine a block received a reward of 50 bitcoins. These rewards are often pooled, allowing for the rewards to be more evenly distributed based on the amount of computing power contributed to the mining pool. Following each halving, there is a supply shock which kicks in a few months afterwards. I witnessed this in 2017 following the second halving, when the block reward dropped to 12.5 bitcoins, leading to a massive Bitcoin bull run. In 2020, the same thing happened again, after the block reward dropped to 6.25 bitcoins per block.
Roughly one block is mined every 10 minutes or so, and some 900 bitcoins are produced each day. According to Woobull Charts, Bitcoin has a current inflation rate of 1.69%.[5] Gold, in contrast, had an inflation rate of roughly 2% in 2022.[6] As of the upcoming halving, only 450 bitcoins will be produced per day. According to Tom Rodgers at ETF Stream, the current Bitcoin inflation rate is 1.78% — slightly higher than the Woobull Charts estimate. After April 2024, this will drop to just 1.1%.[7] This gives Bitcoin an inflation rate that is almost half that of gold. The key result is this: by the halving, Bitcoin will be both the scarcest and the hardest monetary asset in existence, far surpassing that of gold. Why does this matter? Scarcity in itself does not equal value. I could make a painting, and that painting may be the only one of its kind, making it scarce. It does not mean that the painting is automatically valuable.
Bitcoin isn’t like a painting, nor even a pizza (even an ‘infinite pizza’ like the one imagined by some economists who accuse Bitcoin of not being scarce). Rather, it is, like gold, a ‘monetary asset’. As Vijay Boyapati explains in the Bullish Case for Bitcoin: ‘Bitcoins fall into an entirely different category of goods, known as monetary goods, whose value is set game-theoretically. I.e., each market participant values the good based on their appraisal of whether and how much other participants will value it.’[8] Not only is Bitcoin scarce, but also possesses, to use Nick Szabo’s phrase, ‘unforgeable costliness’.[9] Boyapati argues that this means that ‘the good must not be abundant or easy to either obtain or produce in quantity’. It takes increasing amounts of energy and computing power to mine more Bitcoin and secure the network (which is a good thing, as high energy is a counterpart of advanced and prosperous civilization) — much more than it does to produce altcoins such as Litecoin, Ethereum or other copycat chains. Bitcoin’s scarcity cannot be compared to these lesser assets, because they are not monetary goods, and are thus not in competition with Bitcoin or its network effect.
Bitcoin, in contrast to all other assets, has only one competitor, i.e. gold, the only other ‘monetary’ good still in existence, if it can still claim that mantle. Fiat currencies, in contrast, lacking scarcity and being the products of government decree (fiat), act as mediums of exchange but do not qualify as real or ‘hard’ money. Any model of Bitcoin’s price increase, therefore, must be specifically tailored to Bitcoin and/or gold and would naturally not apply to fiat currencies or altcoins such as Litecoin. The scarcity of a monetary good will not automatically result in an increase in price. We can see that in the fact that gold does not automatically go up in price. In fact, it is currently barely beating inflation, if at all. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, the world has moved away from a gold standard, which permanently ended in 1971. Secondly, gold has a high stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, but is relatively stable. The S2F ratio is calculated by dividing the stock (current supply) by the flow (annual production). Gold’s average S2F ratio is 70,[10] meaning it would take 70 years of new supply to replace the existing stock. If this remains stable, that means the scarcity of gold is relatively stable. With relatively stable demand, this leads to price stability.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a vastly increasing S2F ratio. Since Bitcoin is a monetary network, rather than just a monetary asset — as the size of the network increases, demand for Bitcoin increases. This also makes Bitcoin a Veblen good, which is an asset for which demand increases as the price increases.[11] The monetary network expands as the price increases, as will be discussed under the third factor below, leading to an infinite feedback loop.[12] Giovanni Santostasi (known as ‘Plan G’) argues that Bitcoin users grow at a power of 3 in time, which he explains in his ‘Bitcoin Power Law Theory’ (PLT).[13] My purpose in this article is not to argue either for or against any particular theory, including PLT or Plan B’s Bitcoin ‘Stock-to-Flow Theory’ (S2F Theory), but I will mention both. Rather, the object of this essay is to look at what I can see are the main factors leading to a Bitcoin price of $1,000,000 in the short term. For more on Bitcoin’s stock to flow ratio, I recommend that you read three very important chapters by Saifedean Ammous, the Bitcoin economist. The first two are Chapters 8 and 9 of The Bitcoin Standard, i.e. ‘Digital Money’ and ‘What Is Bitcoin Good For?’ The third chapter to read is Chapter 10, ’Money’ from Saifedean’s Principles of Economics, what may well be described as his magnum opus and the modern universal textbook of economics, particularly in relation to the correct school of economics, i.e. the Austrian school. As an aside, I would also recommend reading the sub-section ‘Time Preference and Bitcoin’, which is at the end of Chapter 13, ‘Time Preference’, from the same book.[14]
As Saifedean explains in Chapter 9 of The Bitcoin Standard, ‘What Is Bitcoin Good For’, ‘the existing stockpiles of Bitcoin in 2017 were around 25 times larger than the new coins produced in 2017. This is still less than half of the ratio for gold, but around the year 2022, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio will overtake that of gold, and by 2025, it will be around double that of gold and continue to increase quickly into the future while that of gold stays roughly the same… Around the year 2140 there will be no new supply of Bitcoin, and the stock-to-flow ratio becomes infinite, the first time any commodity of goods has achieved this.’[15] The S2F ratio is important because a high stock-to-flow ratio gives a monetary asset ‘the best salability across time’,[16] i.e. it becomes the good which has the best capacity to hold value over time. Saifedean argues that this causes ‘a growth in the market value stored in it over time, through its appreciation against other commodities’, corresponding to ‘an increase in the liquidity of the market… and therefore an increase in the marketability of the commodity’.[17] The trend is then ‘amplified as people become more aware of it, allocating their cash balances to the good with the best expectation of future value and the smallest bid-ask spread’.[18]
Why is this important in relation to the halving? The halving represents a sudden drop in the new supply, cutting the inflation rate of Bitcoin in half. This means miners are producing half as much new Bitcoin, and selling half as much as they were prior to the halving. Thus, around 20 April 2024, there will be a sudden drop in Bitcoin inflation, to be followed by an inevitable (though not immediate) supply shock. The effects of the supply shock are not felt within the first few months — perhaps as many as six months afterwards based on previous four-year Bitcoin cycles. The supply shock is followed by a Bitcoin ‘bull run’, which leads to a massive increase in the price of Bitcoin. This pattern is so deeply intertwined with the Bitcoin network — being essentially hard-coded into Bitcoin itself due to the pre-programmed and immutable monetary policy of Bitcoin — that we should expect to see it manifest every four years, following every halving. The only things that could change this are the emergence of a supercycle (i.e. a prolonged bull market in Bitcoin that lasts longer than four years),[19] or hyperbitcoinization (i.e. when every currency goes to zero and Bitcoin becomes the one money of the planet).[20]
In short, the April 2024 halving will result in a supply shock. The supply shock will result in a price increase as current demand seeks to acquire a smaller available Bitcoin supply. As Bitcoin is a Veblen good,[21] the rapidly increasing price will lead to increased demand, expanding the network. This leads to a new ‘Gartner’ hype cycle, which occurs every four years. This is often confused for a ‘bubble’ a la Tuplimania. In reality, a Gartner hype cycle represents the maturity, adoption, and social application of a specific technology.[22] In the case of Bitcoin, this accelerates every four years, resulting in these apparent ‘bubbles’. This is something, by the way, that the fiat economists, and ‘finance bros’ fail to understand. Due to the below two factors, i.e. the ETFs and institutional adoption, which feed into the infinite feedback loop, this bull run will likely be the biggest of all time, resulting in a price far in excess of $100,000 — likely in the hundreds of thousands, and possibly even much more. We could easily reach $100,000 in 2024, or even by the halving itself.
2). The ETFs and institutional adoption
In my previous article, The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin, I focused a lot on the problem, i.e. the current money problem in the world, so there is no need to repeat that here. Inflation, the National Debt, political chaos and confusion, etc. are all relevant to Bitcoin’s future trajectory, but what is of more immediate importance is the current driving impulse of Bitcoin adoption, and that is the financial institutions that are hoovering up Bitcoin at an alarming rate, leading to an earlier-than-usual supply shock. As Fred Krueger points out, Bitcoin growth tends to be hyperbolic rather than exponential. This is the ‘gradually then suddenly’ phenomenon,[23] in which is there is slow growth followed by a hyperbolic curve upwards. Krueger writes that, ‘as the supply of Bitcoin gets drained from exchanges, the price tends to infinity as x tends to zero’.[24] This is because Bitcoin is emerging as a new technological and financial singularity. Parker Lewis writes: ‘Definancialization will principally be observed through growing bitcoin adoption, the appreciation of bitcoin relative to every other asset and the deleveraging of the financial system as a whole… The existence of bitcoin as a more sound monetary standard will not only cause a rotation out of financial assets, but bitcoin will also impair future demand for the same type of assets. Why purchase near-zero yielding sovereign debt, illiquid corporate bonds or equity-risk premium when you can own the scarcest asset (and form of money) that has ever existed?’[25] We are witnessing this today with the growth of Bitcoin ETFs, which are eating the financial system from the inside out.
The main factor preventing institutional adoption of Bitcoin has been the need for exchange traded funds (ETFs), which purchase and hold an asset and sell shares to individuals and institutions, who can then have indirect exposure to the asset. Institutional and professional investors cannot hold Bitcoin directly due to various rules and regulations, so financial advisors have typically avoided recommending Bitcoin. While Bitcoin ETFs have existed for a few years, e.g. in Canada, the main financial markets are located in the US, and that is where much of the world’s financial capital is located via the largest financial institutions, e.g. BlackRock, which has 9.101 trillion USD in assets under management; Fidelity, which has 4.5 trillion USD in assets under management; Vanguard Group, which has 7.13 trillion USD in assets under management; and Charles Schwab, which has 7.2 trillion USD in assets under management. When the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the US approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on 10 January 2024, a new era in Bitcoin opened up, the era of institutional adoption. Of the above asset management firms, BlackRock and Fidelity both have Bitcoin ETFs.
BlackRock has even gone as far as recommending that the optimum Bitcoin allocation is 84.9%.[26] This destroys the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio and replaces it with Bitcoin 84.9%, equity 9.3% and bonds 6.2%. Bitcoin and equity make sense, especially if we are talking about equity in Bitcoin-rich companies such as MicroStrategy. Bonds, however, in particular, government bonds, are not the safest asset, as most major governments are inflating their currencies at high rates, and all currencies are all trending to zero against Bitcoin. Fidelity, meanwhile, has a 1–3% ‘conservative’ allocation of Bitcoin in their ‘All-in-One’ asset allocation funds in Canada.[27] What happens when 1% of BlackRock’s and Fidelity’s assets are held in Bitcoin ETFs? The current market cap of Bitcoin is 1.278 trillion USD. 1% of BlackRock’s assets under management is $700 billion USD. 1% of Fidelity’s assets is $450 trillion USD. There are currently 1.78 million Bitcoin on the top twenty exchanges,[28] being the total Bitcoin supply available for sale (out of a total supply of roughly 19.66 million Bitcoin, with roughly 4–6 million lost for good). These 1.78 million bitcoins will need to absorb at least 1.1 trillion USD from BlackRock and Fidelity alone within the next several years.
If we use the conservative Bank of America multiplier for Bitcoin (118x),[29] which assumes that the market cap of Bitcoin tends to increase by $118 for every $1 invested, it would require $58 billion of positive in-flows for Bitcoin to reach a price of $320,000 per Bitcoin, which is a 6.7 trillion USD market-cap.[30] That is easily achievable within this cycle (e.g. 2024–2025). What happens when 1.1 trillion USD is invested in Bitcoin, or 1% from BlackRock and Fidelity? BlackRock’s ETF currently has $16.1 billion in Bitcoin, and Fidelity’s has $9.1 billion. Grayscale remains the largest at $24 billion, but its Bitcoin holdings are rapidly declining due to high fees. The current US Bitcoin ETF holdings, as of 23 March 2024 are:[31]
The Bitcoin price is currently $65,516 as of 23 March 2024. This is below the Bitcoin all time high of $73,737.94 of 14 March 2024. The Bitcoin market cap is currently $1.275.84 billion USD. If we add $1.1 trillion USD of investment at the Bank of America multiple of 118x, this gives us an increase of 129.8 trillion USD in the market cap, or a total market cap of 131 trillion USD. 131 trillion divided by 21 million is 6,238,095.2381, or a price per Bitcoin of $6 million USD per Bitcoin. If we assume that 1% of BlackRock and Fidelity, as a conservative estimate, will flow into Bitcoin’s market cap within, let’s say, 10 years, or by 2034 (following the 2032 halving), we could easily have $6 million per USD by then. Now, add onto that Vanguard, Charles Schwab, pension funds, nation-states, commercial and central banks, and we could be a lot higher than that within the next 10–15 years. I would say that $1 million per BTC by 2028 is a certainty. $5 million per BTC by 2033 is highly likely — let us say a 60% chance. A $10 million BTC by 2033 is a strong possibility.
In the meantime, more and more Bitcoin is being locked up institutionally. MicroStrategy alone holds some 214,246 BTC ($13.5 billion), which is more than 1% of the total supply of Bitcoin. The nearest corporate holder is Galaxy Digital, which holds 17,518, Marathon Digital with 13,716, Tesla with 10,500, and so on. In total, businesses hold roughly 758,000 BTC (3.6%), US ETFs hold roughly 822,590 BTC (3.9%), governments hold roughly 565,000 BTC (2.7%), and individuals hold roughly 11.97 million BTC (57% of the supply).[32] Of the non-US ETFs, Purpose Bitcoin ETF holds roughly 31,731.78 BTC (1.9 billion CAD), Evolve Bitcoin ETF holds 134.93 million CAD, CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF holds 452.99 million CAD, 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF holds 137.07 million CAD, and Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF holds 4,787.11 BTC (234.3 million CAD). According to Bitcoin Treasuries, the following are nation-state holdings of Bitcoin to date:
Of the above, most Bitcoin was mostly seized as part of the proceeds of crime. Only El Salvador and Georgia appear to be consciously holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset or as part of an investment strategy. This number will grow over time as the price of Bitcoin increases, and both commercial and central banks begin holding Bitcoin. In the short term, we can expect Bitcoin adoption on the nation-state level to gradually increase, before adoption becomes hyperbolic, i.e. the ‘suddenly’ phase, when Game theory kicks in and nation-states rush to get as much Bitcoin as possible. Meanwhile, countries such as Bhutan, the UAE, El Salvador and Russia are engaged in state-sponsored mining — a phenomenon which will almost certainly increase in the future. It just takes one large nation-state to start accumulating Bitcoin publicly, and the rest will follow. El Salvador is an early example, but it is small in comparison with the nation-states that will follow.
3). The infinite feedback loop and the financial singularity
As we have discussed above, there are several factors pushing the price up over time. The increasing stock-to-flow ratio, which trends towards infinity, makes Bitcoin the scarcest and hardest monetary asset in existence. As the size of the Bitcoin network increases, the number of its users increases. PLT posits that this growth is at a power of 3 in time, which corresponds with a power law. As the network grows, the price of Bitcoin grows, leading to more adoption because it is a Veblen good, meaning that it is more desirable the higher the price unto which it attains. This is the essence of the meme in which people do not want to buy Bitcoin at lower prices but amass at the gates to purchase Bitcoin at a higher price. What is driving this cycle of Bitcoin adoption? And what does it mean for Bitcoin as a financial singularity? At a speech in Zurich on 23 May 2018, Saifedean Ammous said (8:54–9:22):
“We have this endless cycle which we’ve been running through over the last nine years, and people are just trying to come to terms with it, which is that, as people start demanding it as a store of value, the price rises, makes mining more profitable, more processing power goes towards it, makes the network more secure, which in turn makes people trust it and use it as a store of value for higher amounts, and that brings up the price even further. Effectively, this is how Bitcoin is advancing as a form of money.”[33]
Giovanni Santostasi (Plan G) argues that price, hash rate, and addresses all interact with one another in a continuous feedback loop. He describes it as follows: ‘Initially, Bitcoin needed to be accepted and adopted by the first users in the Satoshi circle. The “value” (now the “Price” that can be checked 24/7 online) increased with the square of the users… The price increase brings in more resources in particular mining power and capabilities. The increase in price decreases the time to mine a block but because of the “Difficulty Adjustment,” the hash rate necessary to mine a block is changed iteratively… The increase in hash-rate brings more security to the system which attracts more users… The cycle repeats indefinitely.’ [34]
I am not interested in discussing the mathematics of the above, or Plan B’s model. Mathematics is not my strength. Rather, my interest is in the feedback loop described by Saifedean and Plan G above, which leads to continuous adoption and price increases. What is clear is that the price increase is inevitable and represents a clear path towards the financial singularity. This means that ‘Bitcoin is currently undergoing a process of monetization, and this involves the absorption of the value stored in current asset classes. As people begin to realise that gold is no longer the best long-term store of value, Bitcoin begins to absorb the total market-cap of gold…’, eventually leading to hyperbitcoinization.[35] The economics behind this are explained by Saifedean in Chapter 10 of Principles of Economics. He outlines that ‘holders of the most salable commodity will have a larger market and a larger amount of liquidity with which to trade’ and ‘increasing use as money further enhances a good’s value as money, thus amplifying the incentive to use it as money, resulting in a winner-take-all dynamic in the market for money’.[36] This results in a scenario in which one money takes over and becomes the global standard, as was the case in the 19th century with gold. Bitcoin is the natural winner of this game, based on its hardness and other qualities, which are summarised by Vijay Boyapati in his Bullish Case for Bitcoin.[37] While the path to the financial singularity and hyperbitcoinization may be long — in the meantime, this winner-takes-all market for money and the never-ending feedback loop mean that Bitcoin will continue to rise in value and reach $1,000,000 per coin in the short-term. How long that will take is anyone’s guess, but I give some suggestions in the conclusion below.
We have already suggested above that Bitcoin could reach a minimum of $6 million per BTC with only 1% of BlackRock and Fidelity’s assets flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, and this could occur within 10 years, e.g. by 2034. Other predictions are a lot more conservative. ARK Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, for example, has argued that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030 — a 50% rise from her previous estimate of $1 million.[38] This prediction is likely to keep being adjusted upwards. Wood has more recently argued that, with more institutions entering the space, Bitcoin’s price could easily reach $3.5 million by 2030.[39] The PLT model shows Bitcoin reaching $1,006,576.10 by 1 January 2034, and $5 million by 2042.[40] Plan B’s predictions are quite a lot higher. He predicts an average in the 2020–2024 halving cycle of ~$50,000, an average of ~$500,000 in the 2024–2028 cycle, and an average of ~$5 million in the 2028–2032 cycle. He describes this as ‘exponential growth’ and says that ‘it will continue IMO’.[41] However, this is an important aphorism in statistics, i.e. ‘all models are wrong, but some are useful.’[42] As Michael Saylor explains:
‘Now, what happens to all these wonderful models if ten billionaires decide to buy 1 billion dollars of Bitcoin each and announce, “we bought it, we’re not ashamed of it, we’re gonna buy more”? All your models are destroyed — completely devastated. Bitcoin goes to the moon.’[43]
Conclusion — The Path to $1,000,000 USD
There is no accurate way to predict the Bitcoin path. Existing models give only approximations. For example, the Plan B S2F model gives an average of $532,000 for the 2024–2028 cycle.[44] This is, however, an average and not an exact prediction. The actual range predicted by the model is between $100,000 and $1 million.[45] Likewise, the Plan G’s PLT model prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1,006,576.10 by 1 January 2034 includes a range of between $484,980.96 and $2,089,140.70, based on Fred Krueger’s spreadsheet.[46] Even though we cannot predict when Bitcoin will hit $1 million with any certainty, we can get some indications of a likely date. For Bitcoin to reach $1 million, it would have a market cap of roughly 20–21 trillion USD. If we use the Bank of America 118x multiple, a $1 million BTC would need roughly $160 billion of in-flows. There have been roughly 11.6 billion USD in flows into the US Bitcoin spot ETFs since 11 January 2024 (up to 22 March 2024). This was over a period of 71 days (including non-trading days). That is roughly $159,154,929.57 of in-flows per day. If that rate remains roughly the same, Bitcoin should reach $1 million within 1,006 days from 22 March 2024, or on or around 23 December 2027. That is a bit of an unlikely date, however, for two reasons:
Firstly, if the 4-year cycle pattern holds, the current Bitcoin bull market will reach its climax long before then, followed by a bear market. Historically speaking, according to Rekt Capital on X, the Bitcoin bull market peaks roughly 518 to 546 days after the halving; however, there are signs of acceleration, indicating that this could take place within roughly 260 days from 20 April 2024.[47] This cycle, however, is different. For the first time since before the first halving, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time-high before the halving, i.e. $73,780.07 on 14 March 2024. This is unprecedented and can be almost definitely attributed to the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have changed the nature of the game. We are in a new era of Bitcoin — the era of financial adoption. This era is also the beginning of the process of ‘definancialization’ described by Parker Lewis above, in which wealth flows out of traditional asset classes and into Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ETFs.
As Rekt Capital explained in a tweet on 11 March, the acceleration we are witnessing ‘may cut the typical cycle length in half. So if we measure Bull Market peaks from the moment an old All Time High is breached… Then this perspective suggests Bitcoin would perform a Bull Market Top 266–315 days later from the moment it breaks its old All Time High… That’s December 2024 or February 2025.’[48] 266 days from 14 March would give us 5 December 2024, and 315 days would be 23 January 2025. There is no way to accurately anticipate how much capital will be deployed towards Bitcoin within that time period. Considering that Bitcoin is a Veblen good and will be in a hype cycle, the capital flowing into the Bitcoin ETFs will likewise accelerate far beyond what we have seen in the last 71 days. If we assume, conservatively, a 2x increase in flows over the time period, from 22 March until 5 December 2024 (258 days), or before the end of this year, we can assume roughly $318 million per day, or a total of $82 billion, 44 million. Using the Bank of America multiple, that would give us a Bitcoin price of roughly $484,059 by the end of this year, which is possible, though of course not guaranteed. I do not vouch for my mathematics here, or the prediction.
Secondly, a further reason why 2027 for a $1 million Bitcoin may prove unlikely is that we may be entering an extended bull market — otherwise known as a supercycle. As mentioned above, the gold standard definitively ended in 1971, after which gold’s price increased relative to inflation. As the value of the US dollar, no longer pegged to gold, rapidly inflated, the price of gold naturally increased. However, due to the relatively stable S2F ratio, gold’s actual value remained relatively stable. However, when the first gold ETFs were launched, a new era in price discovery for gold emerged. The first gold ETF was Gold Bullion Securities, listed on 28 March 2003 on the Australian Securities Exchange by ETF Securities. However, it was not until 18 November 2004, that State Street Corporation launched the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) in the US market, which surpassed $1 billion in assets within its first three trading days.[49] As of 2019, it had more than $40 billion assets and $1.7 billion daily trading volume.[50] As we can see in the chart above, the launch of the US gold ETFs in 2004 led to an 8-year bull market from November 2004 until its peak in June 2012, in which the price appreciated 250%.[51] Even though the price subsequently declined from June 2012 peak of $1,790 per troy ounce, it did go back up again and has even reached a new all-time-high, i.e. $2,266.60 per troy ounce as of Tuesday, 2 April 2024.[52] Bitcoin is not likely to follow the exact same pattern as gold, because it is: (1) far scarcer than gold, having a much higher S2F ratio and absolutely fixed supply; and (2) Bitcoin is a superior monetary asset — indeed, the hardest monetary asset it existence. It is quite probable that, due to the ETFs, Bitcoin has entered (or will enter) a multi-halving supercycle, or even more extended supercycle where the price continues to rise with only minor pullbacks for 8 years or more. As Bitcoin is a Veblen good that continues to attract more investment and capital the more it rises in price, we can expect an acceleration, not a slowing-down or ‘diminishing return’ in its price appreciation.
‘A supercycle will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once Bitcoin keeps going up for months without big dips (because of a constant inflow of new money) more people will bring up the concept of a supercycle. This will lead to more institutions taking a closer look and to allocate capital, meaning a supercycle is even more likely.’[53]
- Marc van der Chijs, co-founder and former director of Hut 8 Mining Corp
The result is this — if Bitcoin does indeed rise to a price of roughly $484,059 by the end of this year, it is quite possible that Bitcoin can 2x within a much shorter timespan. If Bitcoin keeps going up, this can be described, to use Samson Mow’s phrase, as a ‘max pain scenario’.[54] Maximum pain means that people simply do not have the time to accumulate as the price rushes upwards and leaves those who are waiting to fill their bags behind. Imagine this — people believe we have reached the top of the bull market, they sell their bags at $484,059,[55] and then wait for the bear market to increase their Bitcoin stack. However, instead of this happening, Bitcoin continues to churn upwards, doubling and then tripling in value, as bears are left completely ‘rekt’ and numerous investors are left holding fiat. Bitcoin will have lifted off in a rocket ship headed to Mars, while investors are waiting for Bitcoin to head back to the previous station by train. If we expect roughly $318 million per day in inflows from 5 December 2024 onwards, Bitcoin should reach $1,000,000 within another 275 days, or roughly 6 September 2025, following inflows over that time period of roughly $87,450,000,000. This is not an exact prediction, but an indication of what could happen if we enter a supercycle with ‘max pain’ results for those who stand on the sidelines. Whether this happens or not, the ultimate trajectory of Bitcoin remains the same — the absorption of potentially all asset classes into a financial singularity. I will conclude with these words of Michael Saylor about the next ten years of Bitcoin (the Bitcoin ‘gold rush’):
“I think that we’re in the Bitcoin Gold Rush era, and it started in January of 2024, and it will run until about November of 2034. It’s 10 years. The reason November of 2034 is an important date is that if you pull up Clark Moody’s dashboard, you’ll see that in November of 2034, 99% of all the Bitcoin will have been mined, and the last 1% comes out over the next hundred years… When those spot ETFs were approved, that created a fire or an avalanche. The genie is out of the bottle. It doesn’t matter who’s elected president next, it doesn’t matter who’s the next head of the SEC, it doesn’t matter. No politician’s opinion, no banker’s opinion, no regulator’s opinion matters after that date. That was the most consequential thing that kicked off the gold rush.”[56]
- Michael Saylor in the panel discussion, “Crossing the Chasm”, at Bitcoin Atlantis
Some other Bitcoin-related posts by the author
NJ Bridgewater (2024) ‘Bitcoin, Citadels and the Zombie Apocalypse’ (Medium, 13 January 2024)
NJ Bridgewater (2021) ‘The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin’ (Medium, 6 January 2021)
NJ Bridgewater (2018) ‘The Origins of Bitcoin’ (Crossing the Bridge, 5 December 2018)
NJ Bridgewater (2018) ‘The Origins of Money’ (Parts 1 & 2) (Crossing the Bridge, 25 November 2018)
NJ Bridgewater (2018) ‘Ten More Ways to Earn/Get More Bitcoin’ (Crossing the Bridge, 20 October 2018)
NJ Bridgewater (2018) ‘Ten Reasons to Buy Bitcoin’ (Crossing the Bridge, 24 September 2018)
NJ Bridgewater (2018) ‘The Origins of Wealth’ (Parts 1, 2, 3, & 4) (Crossing the Bridge, 5 July 2018)
NJ Bridgewater (2017) ‘What is Bitcoin?’ (Crossing the Bridge, 7 December 2017)
The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin (YouTube video)
Follow me on Twitter @Nicholas19
Sources
Ibrahim Ajibade (2023) ‘Gold Prices Rallied 250% After First ETF Approval, Is Bitcoin (BTC) Price Next?’ (FTXEmpire, 30 October 2023) <https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/gold-prices-rallied-250-after-first-etf-approval-is-bitcoin-btc-price-next> accessed 2 April 2024
Saifedean Ammous (2018) ‘Bitcoin & Economics: What would a Bitcoin standard look like?’ (Zurich, 23 May 2018) <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WBrdLQhUrg&ab_channel=BitcoinLectures> accessed 23 March 2024
Saifedean Ammous (2018) The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralised Alternative to Central Banking (Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley)
Saifedean Ammous (2023) Principles of Economics (The Saif House)
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Carlos (@Sphere_Carlos), tweet (X, 20 Nov 2023) <https://twitter.com/Sphere_Cubed/status/1726497607600820571?lang=en> accessed 23 March 2024
James Chen, ‘Veblen Good: Definition, Examples, Difference from Giffen Good’ (Investopedia, updated 29 June 2023) <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/veblen-good.asp> accessed 23 March 2024
Gartner hype cycle (Wikipedia article) <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle> accessed 23 March 2024
Gold exchange-traded product (Wikipedia article) <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_exchange-traded_product> accessed 2 April 2024
Dan Held (2021) ‘Revisiting The Bitcoin Supercycle’ (The Held Report, 29 April 2021) <https://www.theheldreport.com/p/revisiting-the-bitcoin-supercycle> accessed 2 April 2024
Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan), tweet (X, 7 Feb 2024) <https://twitter.com/matt_hougan/status/1755243999252914498?s=46&t=DznGmyBJYxQZZVSNZjAIlA> accessed 23 March 2024
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Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger), tweet (X, 27 Jan 2024) <https://twitter.com/dotkrueger/status/1751319610962665722?s=46&t=DznGmyBJYxQZZVSNZjAIlA> accessed 23 March 2024
Fred Krueger (2024) ‘Bitcoin Power Law’ <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cIjeuzUBujPTwa7MqM0aSxyzg6poiYoODomWNBt7Qb0/edit#gid=0> accessed 23 March 2024
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[1] NJ Bridgewater (2017) ‘What is Bitcoin?’ (Crossing the Bridge, 7 December 2017) <https://nicholasjames19.blogspot.com/2017/12/what-is-bitcoin.html> accessed 23 March 2024.
[2] NJ Bridgewater (2018) ‘Ten Reasons to Buy Bitcoin’ (Crossing the Bridge, 24 September 2018) <https://nicholasjames19.blogspot.com/2017/12/what-is-bitcoin.html> accessed 23 March 2024.
[3] NJ Bridgewater (2018) ‘The Origins of Bitcoin’ (Crossing the Bridge, 5 December 2018) <https://nicholasjames19.blogspot.com/2017/12/what-is-bitcoin.html> accessed 23 March 2024.
[4] NJ Bridgewater (2021) ‘The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin’ (Medium, 6 January 2021) <https://nicholasbridgewater.medium.com/the-case-for-a-10-000-000-bitcoin-92a889a17ba6> accessed 23 March 2024.
[5] See: <https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-inflation/> accessed 23 March 2024.
[6] ‘Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2022’ (World Gold Council, 31 January 2023) <https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2022/supply> accessed 23 March 2024.
[7] Tom Rodgers, ‘Bitcoin halving poses bold vision for 2024’ <https://btpubs.co.uk/publication/?i=762402&article_id=4350818&view=articleBrowser> accessed 23 March 2024.
[8] Vijay Boyapati (2018) ‘The Bullish Case for Bitcoin’ (Medium, 2 March 2018) <https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1> accessed 24 March 2024.
[9] Nick Szabo (2008) ‘Antiques, time, gold and bit gold’ (Unenumerate, 28 August 2008) <https://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2005/10/antiques-time-gold-and-bit-gold.html> accessed 2 April 2024.
[10] Plan B (@100trillionUSD), tweet (Twitter, 16 Jul 2020) <https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1278710213143658496> accessed 23 March 2024.
[11] James Chen, ‘Veblen Good: Definition, Examples, Difference from Giffen Good’ (Investopedia, updated 29 June 2023) <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/veblen-good.asp> accessed 23 March 2024.
[12] Fred Krueger has provided a useful table of user growth here: Fred Krueger (2024) ‘user growth’ (posted on X, 1 April 2024) <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rryDwmtJYi1IAV4m0Hdg1l4LJpE3fh6juA8nzNmIqPQ/edit?pli=1> accessed 2 April 2024.
[13] Giovanni Santostasi (2024) ‘The Bitcoin Power Law Theory’ (Medium, 20 March 2024) <https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9> accessed 23 March 2024.
[14] Ammous (2023), pp. 268–270.
[15] Saifedean Ammous (2018) The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralised Alternative to Central Banking (Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley), p. 199.
[16] Saifedean Ammous (2023) Principles of Economics (The Saif House), p. 195.
[17] Ammous (2023), p. 195.
[18] Ammous (2023), p. 195.
[19] Dan Held (2021) ‘Revisiting The Bitcoin Supercycle’ (The Held Report, 29 April 2021) <https://www.theheldreport.com/p/revisiting-the-bitcoin-supercycle> accessed 2 April 2024.
[20] ObiWan Kenobit (2018) ‘Hyperbitcoinization: Winner Takes All (or how Bitcoin gets to $100,000,000)’ (Medium, 25 June 2018) <https://medium.com/coinmonks/hyperbitcoinization-winner-takes-all-69ab59f9695f> accessed 2 April 2024.
[21] Sibi Suriyan (2021) ‘How Bitcoin has characteristics of a Veblen good’ (Bitcoin Magazine, 4 December 2021) <https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-bitcoin-has-characteristics-of-veblen-goods> accessed 2 April 2024.
[22] Gartner hype cycle (Wikipedia article) <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle> accessed 23 March 2024.
[23] Parker Lewis (2019) ‘Gradually, Then Suddenly’ (Unchained, 26 July 2019, last updated 17 January 2023) <https://unchained.com/blog/dollar-crisis-to-bitcoin/> accessed 2 April 2024.
[24] Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger), tweet (X, 27 Jan 2024) <https://twitter.com/dotkrueger/status/1751319610962665722?s=46&t=DznGmyBJYxQZZVSNZjAIlA> accessed 23 March 2024.
[25] Parker Lewis (2020) ‘Bitcoin is the Great Definancialization’ (Unchained, 23 December 2020, last updated 24 August 2023) <https://unchained.com/blog/bitcoin-is-the-great-definancialization/> accessed 2 April 2024.
[26] Bitcoin News, tweet (@BitcoinNewsCom, 27 Jan 2024) <https://twitter.com/bitcoinnewscom/status/1751068451647394021?s=46&t=DznGmyBJYxQZZVSNZjAIlA> accessed 23 March 2024.
[27] Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan), tweet (X, 7 Feb 2024) <https://twitter.com/matt_hougan/status/1755243999252914498?s=46&t=DznGmyBJYxQZZVSNZjAIlA> accessed 23 March 2024.
[28] See: https://www.coinglass.com/Balance (23 March 2024).
[29] Bank of America (2021) ‘Commodity Strategist: Bitcoin’s dirty little secrets’ (Bank of America Securities, 17 March 2021) <https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/files/boa.pdf> accessed 23 March 2024.
[30] Carlos (@Sphere_Carlos), tweet (X, 20 Nov 2023) <https://twitter.com/Sphere_Cubed/status/1726497607600820571?lang=en> accessed 23 March 2024.
[31] As per: https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf (accessed 23/03/2024).
[32] See: https://river.com/learn/images/articles/bitcoin-ownership-distribution.png (accessed 23/03/2024).
[33] Saifedean Ammous (2018) ‘Bitcoin & Economics: What would a Bitcoin standard look like?’ (Zurich, 23 May 2018) <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WBrdLQhUrg&ab_channel=BitcoinLectures> accessed 23 March 2024.
[34] Santostasi (2024).
[35] Bridgewater (2021).
[36] Ammous (2023), p. 195.
[37] Boyapati (2018).
[38] Lyllah Ledesma (2024) ‘Cathie Wood Sees Bitcoin Price Reaching $1.5M by 2030 After ETF Approval’ (CoinDesk, 11 January 2024) <https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/11/cathie-wood-sees-bitcoin-price-reaching-15m-by-2030-after-etf-approval/> accessed 23 March 2024.
[39] Helene Braun (2024) ‘Cathie Wood Calls Bitcoin a ‘Financial Super Highway,’ Reiterates $1.5M Price Target’ (CoinDesk, 22 March 2024) <https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/03/22/cathie-wood-calls-bitcoin-a-financial-super-highway-reiterates-15m-price-target/> accessed 23 March 2024.
[40] See: Fred Krueger (2024) ‘Bitcoin Power Law’ <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cIjeuzUBujPTwa7MqM0aSxyzg6poiYoODomWNBt7Qb0/edit#gid=0> accessed 23 March 2024.
[41] Plan B, tweet (X, 18 March 2024) <https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1769681310296035783> accessed 23 March 2024.
[42] See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong (accessed 23 March 2024).
[43] Michael Saylor on ‘Real Conversations: Michael Saylor On Bitcoin — The Long-Term Bull Case’ (Originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on Oct. 20, 2020) <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_nVYtoiShg> accessed 23 March 2024.
[44] Plan B (2024) ‘PlanB Bitcoin Prediction January 2024’ (Plan B, 4 January 2024) <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3We9I_Cs4Cs&ab> accessed 24 March 2024.
[45] Ikemefula Aruogu (2023) ‘Bitcoin to Trade Between $100K and $1M After 2024 Halving: PlanB’ (CoinEdition, 15 February 2023) <hhttps://coinedition.com/bitcoin-to-trade-between-100k-and-1m-after-2024-halving-planb/> accessed 24 March 2024.
[46] See: Fred Krueger (2024) ‘Bitcoin Power Law’ <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cIjeuzUBujPTwa7MqM0aSxyzg6poiYoODomWNBt7Qb0/edit#gid=0> accessed 23 March 2024.
[47] Jamie Redman (2024), ‘Predicting the Peak — Analysts Gauge the Duration and Climax of the Current Bitcoin Bull Run’ (Bitcoin.com, 15 March 2024) <https://news.bitcoin.com/predicting-the-peak-analysts-gauge-the-duration-and-climax-of-the-current-bitcoin-bull-run/> accessed 24 March 2024.
[48] Rekt Capital (@rektcapital), tweet (X, 11 March 2024) <https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1767202010305118233?s=20> accessed 24 March 2024.
[49] Gold exchange-traded product (Wikipedia article) <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_exchange-traded_product> accessed 2 April 2024.
[50] See: Gold exchange-traded product (Wikipedia article).
[51] Ibrahim Ajibade (2023) ‘Gold Prices Rallied 250% After First ETF Approval, Is Bitcoin (BTC) Price Next?’ (FTXEmpire, 30 October 2023) <https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/gold-prices-rallied-250-after-first-etf-approval-is-bitcoin-btc-price-next> accessed 2 April 2024.
[52] Indrabati Lahiri (2024) ‘Gold hits record high: Why investors are turning to the precious metal’ (Euronews.Business, 2 April 2024) <https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/02/gold-hits-record-high-why-investors-are-turning-to-the-precious-metal> accessed 2 April 2024.
[53] Marc van der Chijs, tweet (X, 5 March 2024) <https://twitter.com/marcvanderchijs/status/1764876024049791452> accessed 2 April 2024.
[54] Bitcoinist (2023) ‘Expert Forecasts Bitcoin’s Swift Rise To $1 Million, Warns Of ‘Max Pain’ For The Unprepared’ (CoinMarketCap, last updated 3 months ago) <https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/659da6e797bb5979754846ca/ > accessed 2 April 2024.
[55] A Bitcoin market cap of roughly $9,681,180,000,000.
[56] Michael Saylor in the panel discussion, “Crossing the Chasm”, at Bitcoin Atlantis <https://bitlyrics.co/transcripts/crossing-the-chasm/> accessed 2 April 2024.
